MLB matchup analysis
Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 1:35 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Blue Jays vs Yankees
The case for New York Yankees
The case for Toronto Blue Jays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Blue Jays 3, Yankees 8
How the analysis held up
New York Yankees won, the side LyDia's model favored.
LyDia's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 23.6 points — the team-strength model favored New York Yankees, the run-projection model favored Toronto Blue Jays. The team-strength model had the winner here.
José Soriano (No clear pitching-plan edge) was LyDia's favored starter by pitcher score, but Carlos Rodón actually pitched better tonight: 4.0 IP, 1 ER (2.25 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 5 ER (9.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 3 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (9.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The New York Yankees bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 5.0 relief innings (1.80 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the New York Yankees pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
New York Yankees scored 8, 5.8 more than the 2.2 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, August 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 PM ET |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | José Soriano vs Carlos Rodón |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 76°F, 3% precipitation chance, 9 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Blue Jays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5 |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 67 | 68 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.43 | 3.15 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.9 | 9.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 12.9% | 12.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.7% | 25.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.8% | 13.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.1 | 5.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 59.0% | 40.8% |
| Fly-ball rate | 41.0% | 59.2% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Carlos Rodón a 1-point edge over José Soriano, driven mainly by K/9 (9.6 vs 8.9) and WHIP (1.21 vs 1.29).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Blue Jays are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Yankees are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.77 against -0.42).
| Metric | Blue Jays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.728 | 0.679 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.319 | 0.302 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.8% | 28.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Blue Jays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.704 (+0.018 vs szn) | 0.648 (-0.068 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.00 (+0.053 vs szn) | 3.54 (-0.918 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.310 (+0.007 vs szn) | 0.288 (-0.028 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.1% | 27.8% (+3.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Blue Jays have been the better offense, 0.310 wOBA to 0.288. Yankees are striking out at 27.8% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Blue Jays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 64-68 | 74-56 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.42 | +0.77 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 3.95 | 4.45 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.36 | 3.68 |
| Season OPS | 0.686 | 0.716 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 19.5% | 24.9% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.641 | 0.713 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Blue Jays and Yankees are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Blue Jays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.6/10, Tired | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.9/10, Effective | 7.4/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.2/10, Tired | 6.2/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.3 | 24.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 8 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.09 | 1.11 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.11 | 0.90 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.6 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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