MLB matchup analysis
Pirates vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 4:10 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Pirates vs Dodgers
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so LyDia does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Pirates 0, Dodgers 4
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Dodgers won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Lake Bachar: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 2.0 IP, 1 ER (4.50 ERA). The edge held up.
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 6.0 innings (4.50 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Pittsburgh Pirates scored 0, 3 fewer than the 3 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, August 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 PM ET |
| Venue | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Lake Bachar vs Blake Snell |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 93°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Pirates | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 2⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 68 | 76 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.77 | 2.57 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.13 | 1.05 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.3 | 11.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.9% | 19.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 25.0% | 29.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.1% | 10.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.6% | 52.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 54.4% | 47.4% |
Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives Blake Snell the edge over the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching plan (5 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Lake Bachar is projected for only 2⅓ innings, with the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Blake Snell's own line against the Pittsburgh Pirates blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Pittsburgh Pirates, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Lake Bachar (about 2⅓ innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.81 rather than Lake Bachar's own 3.77. Whole-game, that is 3.58 for the Los Angeles Dodgers against 3.81 on the other side, so the blended read leans Los Angeles Dodgers.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Pirates are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form; Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10, averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.15 against +0.19).
| Metric | Pirates | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 2-8 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.665 | 0.694 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.297 | 0.305 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.9% | 21.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Pirates | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.644 (-0.094 vs szn) | 0.721 (-0.040 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.79 (-1.154 vs szn) | 4.21 (-0.770 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.289 (-0.038 vs szn) | 0.315 (-0.019 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.4% | 20.6% |
Over the last 30 days the Dodgers have been the better offense, 0.315 wOBA to 0.289. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.019 wOBA). Pirates are striking out at 24.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Pirates | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 63-69 | 80-51 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.19 | +1.15 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.95 | 4.98 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.76 | 3.83 |
| Season OPS | 0.738 | 0.761 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.3% | 20.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.681 | 0.768 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Pirates and Dodgers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Pirates | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.4/10, High risk | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.9/10, Effective | 4.8/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 8.0/10, Tired | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 27.3 | 20.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.96 | 4.79 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.17 | 1.21 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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