MLB matchup analysis
Cubs vs Mariners Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at T-Mobile Park · 4:10 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Cubs vs Mariners
The case for Chicago Cubs
The case for Seattle Mariners
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Cubs 19, Mariners 2
How the analysis held up
Chicago Cubs won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Bryce Miller (No clear pitching-plan edge) was LyDia's favored starter by pitcher score, but Shota Imanaga actually pitched better tonight: 2.0 IP, 1 ER (4.50 ERA) against 4.1 IP, 6 ER (12.46 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Chicago Cubs bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 7.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Chicago Cubs pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Seattle Mariners bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 13 earned runs over 4.2 innings (25.07 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Chicago Cubs scored 19, 12.7 more than the 6.3 pregame projection.
Seattle Mariners scored 2, 1.6 fewer than the 3.6 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, August 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 PM ET |
| Venue | T-Mobile Park |
| Starting pitchers | Shota Imanaga vs Bryce Miller |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 71°F, 1% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from NW. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cubs | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 71 | 69 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.78 | 4.12 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.12 | 1.09 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 18.6% | 17.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 24.3% | 24.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.7% | 6.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.8% | 40.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 60.2% | 59.1% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Shota Imanaga a 2-point edge over Bryce Miller, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.1 vs 2.4) and ERA (3.78 vs 4.12).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Cubs are 4-6 in their last 10, averaging 5.9 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Mariners are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Cubs carry the better run differential per game (+0.88 against -0.47).
| Metric | Cubs | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.832 | 0.681 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.360 | 0.304 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.9 | 3.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.4% | 23.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cubs | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.800 (+0.038 vs szn) | 0.673 (-0.011 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.66 (+0.434 vs szn) | 3.50 (-0.416 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.349 (+0.013 vs szn) | 0.300 |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.6% (+0.8% vs szn) | 23.4% |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.349 wOBA to 0.300. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.013 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cubs | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 75-56 | 62-69 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.88 | -0.47 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.22 | 3.92 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.34 | 4.38 |
| Season OPS | 0.762 | 0.684 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.8% | 23.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.745 | 0.643 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cubs and Mariners are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cubs | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.4/10, Tired | 6.9/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.8/10, Average | 2.3/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 6.5/10, Tired | 8.3/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.0 | 22.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.13 | 7.54 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.46 | 1.76 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.1 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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