MLB matchup analysis
Rays vs Orioles Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 1:35 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Rays vs Orioles
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for Baltimore Orioles
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Rays 3, Orioles 1
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won, the side LyDia's model favored.
LyDia's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 73.3 points — the team-strength model favored Tampa Bay Rays, the run-projection model favored Baltimore Orioles. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Nick Martinez (Tampa Bay Rays), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Shane Baz: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.2 IP, 3 ER (4.76 ERA). The edge held up.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 3.0 innings (3.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Baltimore Orioles bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.1 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Baltimore Orioles scored 1, 3.9 fewer than the 4.9 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, August 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 PM ET |
| Venue | Oriole Park at Camden Yards |
| Starting pitchers | Nick Martinez vs Shane Baz |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 80°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rays | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 75 | 62 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.93 | 4.04 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.10 | 1.35 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 5.3 | 8.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.0% | 12.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 14.7% | 20.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 3.7% | 8.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.5% | 43.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 59.5% | 56.4% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Nick Martinez a 13-point edge over Shane Baz, driven mainly by BB/9 (1.3 vs 3.1) and WHIP (1.10 vs 1.35).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rays are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 5.0 runs per game over the last 15 days; Orioles are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.34 against -0.27).
| Metric | Rays | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 8-2 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.747 | 0.739 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.329 | 0.322 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.0 | 4.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 15.2% | 24.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rays | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.733 | 0.686 (-0.027 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.57 (+0.056 vs szn) | 3.96 (-0.486 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.321 | 0.302 (-0.014 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 17.6% (-1.0% vs szn) | 24.8% |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.321 wOBA to 0.302. Orioles are striking out at 24.8% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rays | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 77-53 | 63-68 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.34 | -0.27 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.52 | 4.45 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.18 | 4.72 |
| Season OPS | 0.734 | 0.713 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 18.7% | 24.3% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.757 | 0.715 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rays and Orioles are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rays | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.3/10, Tired | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.1/10, Below average | 6.7/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.3/10, Tired | 6.6/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 28.3 | 22.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.35 | 2.38 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.69 | 0.88 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.2 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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