MLB matchup analysis
Mets vs White Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at Rate Field · 2:10 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Mets vs White Sox
The case for Chicago White Sox
The case for New York Mets
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so LyDia does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Mets 1, White Sox 2
How the analysis held up
Chicago White Sox won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Nolan McLean (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Sean Newcomb: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 2.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The New York Mets bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 2 earned runs allowed over 2.1 relief innings (7.71 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The Chicago White Sox bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 7.0 innings (1.29 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
New York Mets scored 1, 2.8 fewer than the 3.8 pregame projection.
Chicago White Sox scored 2, 2.5 fewer than the 4.5 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Mets at Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, August 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Rate Field |
| Starting pitchers | Nolan McLean vs Sean Newcomb |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 69°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mets | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 2 |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 73 | 76 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.21 | 2.38 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.2 | 8.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 17.8% | 13.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 27.2% | 23.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.4% | 9.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 55.8% | 55.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 44.2% | 44.6% |
Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives the Chicago White Sox pitching plan the edge over Nolan McLean (3 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Sean Newcomb is projected for only 2 innings, with the Chicago White Sox bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the Chicago White Sox blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Nolan McLean's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Chicago White Sox, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Sean Newcomb (about 2 innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.53 rather than Sean Newcomb's own 2.38. Whole-game, that is 3.14 for the New York Mets against 3.53 on the other side, so the blended read leans New York Mets.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Mets are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; White Sox are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. On the season White Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.33 against -0.31).
| Metric | Mets | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.745 | 0.779 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.328 | 0.343 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 4.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.6% | 23.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mets | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.739 (+0.041 vs szn) | 0.727 |
| Runs per game | 4.54 (+0.368 vs szn) | 4.66 (-0.099 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.325 (+0.016 vs szn) | 0.322 |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.0% (+1.3% vs szn) | 24.7% (+0.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.325 wOBA to 0.322. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.016 wOBA). White Sox are striking out at 24.7% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mets | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 59-72 | 68-62 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.31 | +0.33 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.17 | 4.75 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.47 | 4.42 |
| Season OPS | 0.698 | 0.727 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.6% | 23.9% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.699 | 0.723 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mets and White Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mets | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.6/10, Normal | 8.6/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.4/10, Effective | 5.9/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 4.9/10, Normal | 8.2/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.3 | 39.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.53 | 3.00 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.03 | 1.18 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.3 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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