MLB matchup analysis
Reds vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at Chase Field · 4:15 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Reds vs Diamondbacks
The case for Cincinnati Reds
The case for Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Reds 3, Diamondbacks 5
How the analysis held up
Arizona Diamondbacks won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
LyDia's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 56.9 points — the team-strength model favored Cincinnati Reds, the run-projection model favored Arizona Diamondbacks. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Andrew Abbott (Cincinnati Reds), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Mitch Bratt: 6.0 IP, 4 ER (6.00 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 3 ER (9.00 ERA). The edge held up. Neither starter actually pitched well tonight, though — this is a smaller-of-two-bads comparison, not a starter who dealt.
The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 6.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Likely driver: Andrew Abbott, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 6.00 ERA, and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 6.0 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, August 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Chase Field |
| Starting pitchers | Andrew Abbott vs Mitch Bratt |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 110°F, 1% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from NW. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Reds | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4⅓ |
| Throws | L | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 58 | 47 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.15 | 4.54 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.40 | 1.56 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.1 | 6.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 7.3% | 1.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.1% | 15.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.8% | 14.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.2% | 29.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 56.8% | 70.6% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Andrew Abbott a 11-point edge over Mitch Bratt, driven mainly by BB/9 (4.2 vs 5.7) and expected innings (5.4 vs 4.4).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Reds are 3-7 in their last 10, averaging 3.6 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form; Diamondbacks are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 4.7 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. On the season Diamondbacks carry the better run differential per game (+0.07 against -0.72).
| Metric | Reds | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.612 | 0.799 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.274 | 0.349 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.6 | 4.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.7% | 17.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Reds | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.664 (-0.035 vs szn) | 0.754 (+0.035 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.80 (-0.299 vs szn) | 4.71 (+0.149 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.296 (-0.014 vs szn) | 0.332 (+0.015 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 28.3% (+2.9% vs szn) | 17.8% (-1.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Diamondbacks have been the better offense, 0.332 wOBA to 0.296. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.015 wOBA). Reds are striking out at 28.3% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Reds | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 62-69 | 69-62 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.72 | +0.07 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.10 | 4.56 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.82 | 4.50 |
| Season OPS | 0.699 | 0.719 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.4% | 19.2% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.738 | 0.798 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Reds and Diamondbacks are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Reds | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.5/10, Tired | 7.5/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.2/10, Below average | 3.3/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 6.9/10, Tired | 8.4/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 28.7 | 24.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.74 | 1.66 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.5 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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