MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Mets Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, August 28, 2026 at Citi Field · 7:10 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Astros vs Mets
The case for New York Mets
The case for Houston Astros
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Astros 3, Mets 1
How the analysis held up
Houston Astros won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
Hunter Brown (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Christian Scott: 6.2 IP, 1 ER (1.35 ERA) against 5.1 IP, 3 ER (5.06 ERA). The edge held up.
The Houston Astros bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.1 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The New York Mets bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.2 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
New York Mets scored 1, 3.1 fewer than the 4.1 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Christian Scott, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 5.06 ERA, and the Houston Astros bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 2.1 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at New York Mets |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, August 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Citi Field |
| Starting pitchers | Hunter Brown vs Christian Scott |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 78°F, 9% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 65 | 67 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.40 | 3.52 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.31 | 1.30 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.4 | 10.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.7% | 17.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 24.9% | 27.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 5.0 | 4.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 62.2% | 39.8% |
| Fly-ball rate | 37.8% | 60.2% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Christian Scott a 2-point edge over Hunter Brown, driven mainly by K-BB% (17.0% vs 11.7%) and BB/9 (4.1 vs 5.0).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Astros are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mets are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.31 against -0.40).
| Metric | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.708 | 0.705 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.306 | 0.311 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.9% | 24.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.725 | 0.694 |
| Runs per game | 4.54 (-0.025 vs szn) | 3.82 (-0.275 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.317 | 0.307 |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.4% | 24.3% (+1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Astros have been the better offense, 0.317 wOBA to 0.307. Mets are striking out at 24.3% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 67-67 | 60-74 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.31 | -0.40 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.56 | 4.10 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.87 | 4.50 |
| Season OPS | 0.729 | 0.695 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 22.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.736 | 0.695 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Mets are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.5/10, Tired | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.9/10, Below average | 5.2/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.1/10, Tired | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.3 | 21.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.79 | 3.74 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.37 | 1.34 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.2 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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