MLB matchup analysis
Orioles vs Athletics Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, August 28, 2026 at Sutter Health Park · 9:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Orioles vs Athletics
The case for Baltimore Orioles
The case for Athletics
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Orioles 4, Athletics 3
How the analysis held up
Baltimore Orioles won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Brandon Young (Baltimore Orioles), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Jacob Lopez: 7.0 IP, 1 ER (1.29 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Athletics bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 5.0 relief innings (1.80 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 2 of the runs charged to the Athletics pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Baltimore Orioles scored 4 in a game that went 10 innings — not compared against the 6 pregame projection, which assumed nine.
Athletics scored 3 in a game that went 10 innings — not compared against the 3.4 pregame projection, which assumed nine.
Game information
| Matchup | Baltimore Orioles at Athletics |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, August 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Sutter Health Park |
| Starting pitchers | Brandon Young vs Jacob Lopez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 76°F, 2% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Orioles | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 65 | 52 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.50 | 4.98 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.36 | 1.48 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.2 | 8.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.2% | 10.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.7% | 21.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.5% | 11.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.3 | 4.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.3% | 33.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 52.7% | 66.8% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Brandon Young a 13-point edge over Jacob Lopez, driven mainly by BB/9 (3.3 vs 4.5) and ERA (3.50 vs 4.98).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Neither side is playing well. Orioles are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Athletics are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Orioles carry the better run differential per game (-0.17 against -1.38).
| Metric | Orioles | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.741 | 0.776 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.322 | 0.343 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.8% | 20.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Orioles | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.712 | 0.699 (-0.021 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.52 (-0.022 vs szn) | 4.07 (-0.284 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.313 | 0.310 (-0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.4% (+1.1% vs szn) | 22.0% (-0.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Orioles have been the better offense, 0.313 wOBA to 0.310. Orioles are striking out at 25.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Orioles | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 65-69 | 53-81 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.17 | -1.38 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.54 | 4.36 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.71 | 5.73 |
| Season OPS | 0.717 | 0.721 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.4% | 22.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.717 | 0.723 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Orioles and Athletics are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Orioles | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.4/10, Normal | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 7.9/10, Dominant | 4.7/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.0/10, Normal | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.7 | 25.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 0.46 | 4.32 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.86 | 1.48 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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