MLB matchup analysis
Phillies vs Angels Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, August 28, 2026 at Angel Stadium · 9:38 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Phillies vs Angels
The case for Los Angeles Angels
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Phillies 5, Angels 3
How the analysis held up
Philadelphia Phillies won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
Reid Detmers (Los Angeles Angels), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Andrew Painter: 6.0 IP, 1 ER (1.50 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 3 ER (4.50 ERA). The edge held up.
The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The Los Angeles Angels bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 4 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (12.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Likely driver: the Los Angeles Angels bullpen allowed 4 earned runs over 3.0 relief innings (12.00 ERA), which was not flagged pregame but showed up anyway, and the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 3.0 innings), unflagged pregame.
Game information
| Matchup | Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, August 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:38 PM ET |
| Venue | Angel Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Andrew Painter vs Reid Detmers |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 88°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Phillies | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 46 | 74 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 6.04 | 3.62 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.48 | 1.06 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.7 | 10.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.0% | 21.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.3% | 28.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.3% | 7.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.8% | 39.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 58.2% | 60.8% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Reid Detmers a 28-point edge over Andrew Painter, driven mainly by K-BB% (21.2% vs 11.0%) and ERA (3.62 vs 6.04).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 6.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Angels are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Phillies carry the better run differential per game (+0.19 against -0.57).
| Metric | Phillies | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.802 | 0.663 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.349 | 0.295 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.1 | 4.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 16.3% | 24.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Phillies | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.769 (+0.053 vs szn) | 0.605 (-0.077 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.41 (+0.867 vs szn) | 3.37 (-0.711 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.338 (+0.023 vs szn) | 0.272 (-0.032 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 16.2% (-6.0% vs szn) | 25.4% |
Over the last 30 days the Phillies have been the better offense, 0.338 wOBA to 0.272. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.023 wOBA). Angels are striking out at 25.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Phillies | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 74-60 | 52-82 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.19 | -0.57 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.54 | 4.08 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.36 | 4.65 |
| Season OPS | 0.715 | 0.684 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.3% | 25.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.697 | 0.683 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Phillies and Angels are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Phillies | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.5/10, Normal | 6.8/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.3/10, Effective | 5.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 3.9/10, Normal | 6.6/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 16.7 | 22.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.70 | 3.27 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.02 | 1.36 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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