MLB matchup analysis
Rockies vs Braves Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, August 28, 2026 at Truist Park · 7:15 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Rockies vs Braves
The case for Atlanta Braves
The case for Colorado Rockies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Rockies 4, Braves 6
How the analysis held up
Atlanta Braves won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Grant Holmes (Atlanta Braves), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Tomoyuki Sugano: 5.0 IP, 3 ER (5.40 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 6 ER (13.50 ERA). The edge held up. Neither starter actually pitched well tonight, though — this is a smaller-of-two-bads comparison, not a starter who dealt.
The Colorado Rockies bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Game information
| Matchup | Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, August 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Truist Park |
| Starting pitchers | Tomoyuki Sugano vs Grant Holmes |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 80°F, 16% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rockies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5 |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 55 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.08 | 3.52 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 5.4 | 7.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.6% | 8.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 14.0% | 18.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.4% | 10.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.1 | 3.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.4% | 47.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 54.6% | 52.8% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Grant Holmes a 10-point edge over Tomoyuki Sugano, driven mainly by ERA (3.52 vs 5.08) and K/9 (7.3 vs 5.4).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Braves are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 2.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Braves carry the better run differential per game (+0.85 against -1.04).
| Metric | Rockies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.701 | 0.609 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.315 | 0.269 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.6 | 2.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.3% | 24.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rockies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.733 (-0.007 vs szn) | 0.699 (-0.026 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.70 (-0.044 vs szn) | 3.72 (-0.950 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.323 | 0.307 (-0.012 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.2% | 22.7% (+1.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rockies have been the better offense, 0.323 wOBA to 0.307.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rockies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 52-82 | 79-55 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -1.04 | +0.85 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.75 | 4.67 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.79 | 3.82 |
| Season OPS | 0.740 | 0.723 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.7% | 21.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.757 | 0.726 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rockies and Braves are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rockies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.4/10, Normal | 5.5/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 3.8/10, Below average | 6.1/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.0/10, Normal | 5.0/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.0 | 17.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.54 | 1.59 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.54 | 1.59 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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