MLB matchup analysis
Padres vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, August 28, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 7:10 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Padres vs Rays
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for San Diego Padres
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Padres 4, Rays 9
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Casey Mize (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Shane McClanahan: 5.0 IP, 2 ER (3.60 ERA) against 5.2 IP, 3 ER (4.76 ERA). The edge held up.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.1 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Tampa Bay Rays pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Game information
| Matchup | San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, August 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Casey Mize vs Shane McClanahan |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 80°F, 7% precipitation chance, 1 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Padres | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5 |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 72 | 73 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.53 | 3.19 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.10 | 1.11 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.9 | 8.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.5% | 13.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.5% | 22.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.1% | 8.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 34.4% | 49.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 65.6% | 50.6% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Shane McClanahan a 1-point edge over Casey Mize, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.72 vs 0.90) and ERA (3.19 vs 3.53).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Padres are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.09 against +0.39).
| Metric | Padres | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.721 | 0.659 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.323 | 0.294 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.1% | 15.7% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Padres | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.725 (+0.023 vs szn) | 0.728 |
| Runs per game | 4.39 (+0.148 vs szn) | 4.61 (+0.100 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.322 (+0.011 vs szn) | 0.319 |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.7% (-2.0% vs szn) | 16.2% (-2.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.319. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.011 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Padres | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 72-62 | 79-54 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.09 | +0.39 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.24 | 4.51 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.16 | 4.12 |
| Season OPS | 0.703 | 0.731 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 18.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.687 | 0.753 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Padres and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Padres | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.4/10, Tired | 5.9/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 7.6/10, Dominant | 6.6/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.1/10, Normal | 5.1/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.0 | 19.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 0.75 | 2.75 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.96 | 0.81 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.9 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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