MLB matchup analysis
White Sox vs Twins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, August 28, 2026 at Target Field · 8:10 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on White Sox vs Twins
The case for Minnesota Twins
The case for Chicago White Sox
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
White Sox 7, Twins 4
How the analysis held up
Chicago White Sox won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
LyDia's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 34.7 points — the team-strength model favored Minnesota Twins, the run-projection model favored Chicago White Sox. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Luis Castillo (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Dean Kremer: 4.0 IP, 4 ER (9.00 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 5 ER (11.25 ERA). The edge held up. Neither starter actually pitched well tonight, though — this is a smaller-of-two-bads comparison, not a starter who dealt.
The Chicago White Sox bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 5.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Minnesota Twins bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 5.0 relief innings (1.80 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Minnesota Twins pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Likely driver: Dean Kremer, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 11.25 ERA, and the Chicago White Sox bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 5.0 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, August 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Target Field |
| Starting pitchers | Luis Castillo vs Dean Kremer |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 77°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | White Sox | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5 |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 52 | 53 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.37 | 5.70 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.43 | 1.22 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 12.8% | 16.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.8% | 23.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.0% | 7.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.2% | 46.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 56.8% | 53.9% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Dean Kremer a 1-point edge over Luis Castillo, driven mainly by WHIP (1.22 vs 1.43) and K-BB% (16.2% vs 12.8%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →White Sox are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Twins are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season White Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.35 against -0.44).
| Metric | White Sox | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.801 | 0.709 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.352 | 0.313 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.4 | 3.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.0% | 19.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | White Sox | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.749 (+0.017 vs szn) | 0.708 (-0.017 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.00 (+0.164 vs szn) | 3.89 (-0.696 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.331 (+0.008 vs szn) | 0.314 (-0.006 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.6% (+0.7% vs szn) | 19.5% (-1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the White Sox have been the better offense, 0.331 wOBA to 0.314. White Sox are striking out at 24.6% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | White Sox | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 70-63 | 64-70 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.35 | -0.44 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.84 | 4.59 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.49 | 5.02 |
| Season OPS | 0.731 | 0.724 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 23.9% | 21.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.727 | 0.738 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. White Sox and Twins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | White Sox | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.5/10, Tired | 4.1/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.5/10, Average | 0.7/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 7.8/10, Tired | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 34.7 | 13.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.67 | 11.85 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.41 | 2.49 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.4 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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