MLB matchup analysis
Diamondbacks vs Giants Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, August 28, 2026 at Oracle Park · 10:15 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Diamondbacks vs Giants
The case for San Francisco Giants
The case for Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Diamondbacks 10, Giants 6
How the analysis held up
Arizona Diamondbacks won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
LyDia's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 45.2 points — the team-strength model favored San Francisco Giants, the run-projection model favored Arizona Diamondbacks. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Blade Tidwell (San Francisco Giants), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Kohl Drake: 5.0 IP, 6 ER (10.80 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 5 ER (11.25 ERA). The edge held up. Neither starter actually pitched well tonight, though — this is a smaller-of-two-bads comparison, not a starter who dealt.
The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 5.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Arizona Diamondbacks pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The San Francisco Giants bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 4 earned runs over 4.0 innings (9.00 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Arizona Diamondbacks scored 10, 5.8 more than the 4.2 pregame projection.
San Francisco Giants scored 6, 1.9 more than the 4.1 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Blade Tidwell, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 10.80 ERA, and the San Francisco Giants bullpen allowed 4 earned runs over 4.0 relief innings (9.00 ERA), which is exactly the risk flagged pregame.
Game information
| Matchup | Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, August 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Oracle Park |
| Starting pitchers | Kohl Drake vs Blade Tidwell |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 66°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Diamondbacks | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 43 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.40 | 3.58 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.56 | 1.16 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.0 | 7.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 9.1% | 11.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 16.9% | 20.6% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.8% | 9.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 22.9% | 40.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 77.1% | 59.4% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Blade Tidwell a 22-point edge over Kohl Drake, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.55 vs 1.62) and WHIP (1.16 vs 1.56).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Diamondbacks are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Giants are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Diamondbacks carry the better run differential per game (+0.03 against -0.54).
| Metric | Diamondbacks | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.728 | 0.732 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.320 | 0.322 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.0% | 24.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Diamondbacks | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.748 (+0.033 vs szn) | 0.677 (-0.036 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.54 (+0.006 vs szn) | 3.96 (-0.125 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.329 (+0.013 vs szn) | 0.301 (-0.012 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.6% (-0.5% vs szn) | 22.4% (+1.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Diamondbacks have been the better offense, 0.329 wOBA to 0.301. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.013 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Diamondbacks | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 71-64 | 55-79 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.03 | -0.54 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.53 | 4.09 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.50 | 4.63 |
| Season OPS | 0.713 | 0.714 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 19.2% | 21.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.683 | 0.661 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Diamondbacks and Giants are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Diamondbacks | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.7/10, Normal | 8.5/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 5.0/10, Average | 5.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.7/10, Normal | 8.3/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.3 | 34.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.44 | 3.37 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.18 | 1.33 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.0 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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