MLB matchup analysis
Dodgers vs Tigers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, August 28, 2026 at Comerica Park · 6:40 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for Detroit Tigers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Los Angeles Dodgers remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.1/10: conviction 8.58, pitching plan 30, bullpen 4.67, offense 27.81. LyDia projects 72.2% against a 63.2% no-vig market number, a 8.9% model edge at -181. Los Angeles Dodgers owns the starting pitcher edge by 18 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Los Angeles Dodgers's pen efficiency: Effective (6.3/10). Pitching plan: Drew Anderson 4.2 IP + remaining bullpen 4.8 IP. Bullpen fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk grade only the innings assigned to the bullpen. Lineup check: Los Angeles Dodgers is in a cold stretch (-0.083 OPS); Detroit Tigers is in a cold stretch (-0.098 OPS).
Final result
Dodgers 2, Tigers 1
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Dodgers won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Tarik Skubal (Los Angeles Dodgers) was LyDia's favored starter by pitcher score, but Drew Anderson actually pitched better tonight: 4.2 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 1 ER (1.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Los Angeles Dodgers scored 2, 2.2 fewer than the 4.2 pregame projection.
Detroit Tigers scored 1, 1.7 fewer than the 2.7 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, August 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Comerica Park |
| Starting pitchers | Tarik Skubal vs Drew Anderson |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 70°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Dodgers | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 4⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 82 | 64 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.84 | 3.87 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.94 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.9 | 10.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 26.7% | 16.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 30.9% | 26.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 4.2% | 9.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 3.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.7% | 51.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 46.3% | 48.4% |
Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives Tarik Skubal the edge over the Detroit Tigers pitching plan (21 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Drew Anderson is projected for only 4⅓ innings, with the Detroit Tigers bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Tarik Skubal's own line against the Detroit Tigers blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Detroit Tigers, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Drew Anderson (about 4⅓ innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 4.41 rather than Drew Anderson's own 3.87. Whole-game, that is 3.03 for the Los Angeles Dodgers against 4.41 on the other side, so the blended read leans Los Angeles Dodgers.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Dodgers are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 3.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.10 against +0.51).
| Metric | Dodgers | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.676 | 0.619 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.299 | 0.277 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 3.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.0% | 21.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Dodgers | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.702 (-0.057 vs szn) | 0.705 (-0.010 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.96 (-0.947 vs szn) | 4.96 (+0.536 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.309 (-0.024 vs szn) | 0.313 |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.9% | 20.8% (-1.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Tigers have been the better offense, 0.313 wOBA to 0.309.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Dodgers | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 80-54 | 62-71 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.10 | +0.51 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.91 | 4.43 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.81 | 3.91 |
| Season OPS | 0.759 | 0.717 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.6% | 22.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.767 | 0.688 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Dodgers and Tigers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Dodgers | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.7/10, Tired | 5.5/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.3/10, Effective | 4.7/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.1/10, Normal | 5.7/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 18.7 | 23.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 2 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.41 | 5.09 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.18 | 1.13 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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