MLB matchup analysis
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, August 28, 2026 at Busch Stadium · 8:15 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Pirates vs Cardinals
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
The case for St. Louis Cardinals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Pirates 1, Cardinals 4
How the analysis held up
St. Louis Cardinals won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
LyDia's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 49.6 points — the team-strength model favored Pittsburgh Pirates, the run-projection model favored St. Louis Cardinals. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Jared Jones (Pittsburgh Pirates) was LyDia's favored starter by pitcher score, but Quinn Mathews actually pitched better tonight: 5.2 IP, 1 ER (1.59 ERA) against 4.2 IP, 3 ER (5.79 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.1 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 3.1 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Pittsburgh Pirates scored 1, 2.7 fewer than the 3.7 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Jared Jones, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 5.79 ERA, and the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 3.1 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, August 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Busch Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Jared Jones vs Quinn Mathews |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 81°F, 0% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Pirates | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅓ | 4 |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 61 | 40 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.67 | 5.63 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.23 | 1.63 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.3 | 7.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 18.1% | 8.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 27.0% | 19.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.9% | 11.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.4 | 4.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.2% | 40.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 59.8% | 59.4% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Jared Jones a 21-point edge over Quinn Mathews, driven mainly by K-BB% (18.1% vs 8.3%) and WHIP (1.23 vs 1.63).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Pirates are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.15 against -0.07).
| Metric | Pirates | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.657 | 0.725 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.293 | 0.321 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 5.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.5% | 23.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Pirates | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.618 (-0.114 vs szn) | 0.715 (+0.016 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.39 (-1.445 vs szn) | 4.59 (+0.145 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.280 (-0.045 vs szn) | 0.317 (+0.006 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.7% (+1.2% vs szn) | 22.4% (+1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cardinals have been the better offense, 0.317 wOBA to 0.280. Pirates are striking out at 25.7% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Pirates | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 65-70 | 67-68 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.15 | -0.07 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.84 | 4.44 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.68 | 4.51 |
| Season OPS | 0.733 | 0.700 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.4% | 20.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.676 | 0.693 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Pirates and Cardinals are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Pirates | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.1/10, Tired | 9.3/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.1/10, Effective | 2.2/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 6.6/10, Tired | 10.0/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 29.0 | 27.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.48 | 8.13 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.24 | 1.59 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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